Monday, July 16, 2012

How to invest in gold - part 2

The second part of our two part post, How to invest in gold. This article covers the various ways you can invest in gold, through purchasing gold coins, gold bullion, and more. This is the smartest way to invest your money.  Now on to part 2 of the post:

4.Miners


A riskier way to invest in gold is through gold-mining stocks. Mining stocks can have as much as a 3-to-1 leverage to gold's spot price to the upside and downside.

Gold miners are risky because they trade with the broader equity market. Some tips to consider when picking gold stocks are to find companies with strong production and reserve growth. Make sure they have good management and inventory supported by either buying smaller-cap companies or by maintaining consistent production.

Global gold production has been declining since 2001, only recently experiencing more juice, and big miners keep their gold reserves flush by buying or partnering with small-cap companies, which are in the exploration or development stage.

Many investors make the mistake of buying small gold miners that are in the exploration phase with no cash flow. Picking among these stocks is like buying a lottery ticket, very few companies actually strike gold and become profitable. Even fewer become takeover targets.




Adam Graf, director of emerging miners for Dahlman Rose & Co., models 50 companies on a forward basis using forward curves. "On a theoretical basis, if gold moved up $100 an ounce, what does the change in the current value do based on what the forward looking cash flow should do."

Another factor to consider when picking gold stocks is how quickly the company will benefit from higher prices. Randgold Resources (GOLD), a miner in Africa, is almost 100% correlated to gold prices. CEO Mark Bristow says that the company benefits from gold prices in almost two days.

You also have to buy the right amount of gold stocks. J.C. Doody, editor of goldstockanalyst.com, bets on 10 gold stocks because it allows him to take some risk with explorers or junior miners as well as get the safety from a major.

If you do go the gold stock route, you have to be prepared for the rollercoaster ride.

Leverage swings both ways so if the gold price drops 10%, gold stocks can plummet 20%-30%. Investors often get too spooked too fast and wind up selling out of gold stocks at the wrong time.

There is always time to buy gold, you just have to know your ABCs before you start.

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